Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price59.90 USD
Fair value78.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-21Read Distribution65.59-8.7% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup84.72-29.3% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ambiq Micro, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $59.90. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 34 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 34 days
Price at the screen
$59.90
Valuation
N/A trailing · -259.08 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.37%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
79.90%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 79.9% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 30.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ultra Low Power Chips Still Burning Cash
Picture a fitness band that lasts weeks on a single charge instead of hours. Ambiq supplies the chips that make such claims possible through its sub-threshold design. Yet the business remains deep in losses and the shares sit slightly above our fair value with no margin of safety on offer.
Revenue growth of 59 percent looks impressive but forward earnings are negative and profit margins sit at minus 47 percent. Return on equity is minus 24 percent. In a cyclical semiconductor industry that pattern usually reflects temporary demand spikes rather than durable advantage.
High growth can disappear quickly once handset and IoT cycles turn. The ethical screen passes yet the combination of losses and stretched valuation leaves nothing worth pursuing here. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMBQ trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-07-21Markup$72.43-14.5%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 14.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-07-18Markup$84.72+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-07-17Markup$84.72+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-07-03Markup$84.72+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$84.72Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.