Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 19:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. holds its Markup at $13.63. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$13.63
Valuation
N/A trailing · 170.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.13
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
27.90%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 27.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.93%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 32.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Permian Sand Supplier Trades Well Above Fair Value
Picture a West Texas sand mine that only runs when drillers are spending hard. Atlas Energy Solutions feeds those crews with proppant and power, yet revenue is already down 11 percent and both profit margins and return on equity sit in negative territory. At 36.8 times forward earnings the shares price in a recovery that has not arrived, leaving the stock 17 percent above our calculated fair value and offering no opportunity on any standard measure.
We therefore pass. The ethical screen raises no flags, yet the combination of losses, unknown competitive edge and stretched valuation leaves nothing worth owning at current levels. Twelve analysts may still favour the name with a 21 dollar median target, but those forecasts sit outside the numbers the business is actually posting.
Cyclical oil services often look expensive precisely when earnings are about to roll over. A low multiple can signal a value trap at the peak; here the high multiple simply makes the trap more obvious. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AESI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-20Markup$14.07-17.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 17.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-18Markup$16.97+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-16Markup$16.97+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-03Markup$16.97+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$16.97Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
