Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price17.56 USD
Fair value26.42
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-09Read Distribution18.20-3.5% to today ✓
2026-08-08Read Markup19.70-10.9% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution18.12-3.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
PLDT Inc. holds its Distribution at $17.56. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 166 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 166 days
Price at the screen
$17.56
Valuation
8.61 trailing · 6.54 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
8,574.44%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 8,574.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
359.97%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 360.0% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 50% discount to our $26.42 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 2.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 50.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Philippine calls expose a debt-heavy network
Every call or data plan sold across Manila still funnels through PLDT's ageing wires and towers. The business prints a solid 25% return on equity and a 14% profit margin, yet revenue barely edges forward at 2% a year. On paper the 7.3 times forward earnings multiple looks attractive against our $26.42 fair value, but we pass without hesitation.
The ethical screen is the decisive factor. PLDT fails outright on its debt ratio, a red line we will not cross regardless of the apparent margin of safety. Moderate competitive moat and single-analyst coverage add little comfort when the balance sheet already carries too much leverage for our standards.
Risk sits mainly in that stretched debt load and the modest top-line growth that leaves little room for error if competition or regulation tightens. The low multiple reflects those constraints rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PHI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-08-08Markup · changed$19.70+8.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-18Distribution$18.12+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-03Distribution$18.12+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$18.12Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
