An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $1,333.81
Monolithic Power Systems holds its Distribution at $1,333.81.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 33 days
Price
$1,333.81
Valuation
95.48 trailing · 43.60 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 87.7
Beta
1.71
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades above our $1,029.25 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 26.10% revenue growth.
Read at
$1,333.81
95.48 P/E · 43.60 fwd
Our fair value
$1,029.25
23% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$1,800.00
+35% to current
Target low $1,500.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $2,000.00
▲ current $1,333.81 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$1,333.81
you are here
Conservative
$1,029.25
-23%
Analyst avg
$1,800.00
+35%
Our fair value
$1,029.25
-23%
Analyst high
$2,000.00
+50%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
26.10%
Profit margin
22.98%
Debt to equity
0.54
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 13 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 0.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 32.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Power chip firm priced beyond its cycle
Picture a supplier of voltage converters riding strong demand from data centres and cars. Monolithic Power Systems shows 26% revenue growth, 23% margins and 20% ROE, yet our fair value sits 21% below the current price and the forward multiple stands at 42.9 times. The market loves the story and the analyst target of 1805 dollars, but the numbers point to a clear overvaluation.
This is a cyclical semiconductor business. Peak earnings often coincide with the lowest multiples, yet here the multiple is already stretched. A moderate moat offers some protection, yet any slowdown in end markets would compress both growth and the rating quickly.
The ethical screen is passed with no red flags. Even so the valuation leaves little room for the normal swings of the cycle. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
MPWR trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-30 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-30Distribution$1,333.81+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Distribution$1,333.81+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$1,333.81+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$1,333.81+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$1,333.81+1.7%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$1,312.00+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$1,312.00-11.4%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$1,481.05+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797.
2026-07-03Distribution$1,481.05+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$1,481.05Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
