Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price40.77 USD
Fair value38.90
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-16Read Accumulation44.89-9.2% to today
2026-08-16Read Distribution42.04-3.0% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown44.38-8.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Viper Energy Inc holds its Markdown at $40.77. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 268 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-22
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 268 days
Price at the screen
$40.77
Valuation
N/A trailing · 16.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.25
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
17.25%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 17.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.72%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-22 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +39% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-22 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Permian Royalties Trade Above Fair Value
Picture a royalty cheque that swells when oil rigs multiply across west Texas, then shrinks when prices collapse. Viper Energy sits in that exact spot. Revenue has doubled in the past year yet the business still posts losses and negative returns on equity, while the shares already sit 12 percent above our fair value estimate. The market is pricing in another boom cycle.
A forward multiple of 18 times earnings looks reasonable until you remember this is a cyclical business. Peak earnings often coincide with peak multiples, and the narrow moat offers little protection when drilling slows. Strong analyst targets do not change the fact that current pricing leaves no margin of safety.
Currency swings, falling rig counts and the usual energy price swings remain live risks. The ethical screen is clear, yet the valuation and cycle timing still fail our test. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VNOM trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (18 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (18 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-18Markdown$44.38+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (18 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-03Markdown$44.38+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$44.38Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
