Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price110.40 USD
Fair value122.20
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-16Read Markdown111.06-0.6% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup84.84+30.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. holds its Markdown at $110.40. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-29
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$110.40
Valuation
20.07 trailing · 12.90 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.11
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Victory Capital Holdings, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-29 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 10.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-29 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ethics Screen Blocks This Asset Manager Outright
Victory Capital collects fees from institutions and retail investors alike yet trips our ethical screen the moment the sector label appears. Financial services sit on the prohibited list, so the 77% revenue jump, 26% profit margin and 22% return on equity never get a proper look in. The modest 8% gap to our fair value estimate changes nothing once that hard rule applies.
We pass for the same reason we pass on any other pure financial firm, regardless of the 12.2 times forward earnings or the hold-rated analyst targets clustered around 92 dollars. The business model itself sits outside the lines we draw, full stop. No amount of growth or cash generation overrides the sector filter.
Cyclical swings in assets under management and fee pressure remain real even if the numbers look tidy today. Currency moves and market drawdowns can still erode those margins quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VCTR trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$110.40-0.6%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-09-16Markdown · changed$111.06+4.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-08-16Markup$106.79+25.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 25.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-18Markup$84.84+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-03Markup$84.84+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$84.84Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
