Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-17
Options put/call open interest 0.83, read 2026-11-07
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price36.60 USD
Fair value27.42
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-03Read Accumulation36.86-0.7% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-13Read Markdown37.14-1.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-07-02Read Distribution38.78-5.6% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
STAG Industrial, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $36.60. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 342 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 342 days
Price at the screen
$36.60
Valuation
26.84 trailing · 43.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.92
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
45.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 45.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.38%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.05%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
STAG Industrial,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 46% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $27.42 fair value estimate, 9.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 33.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $27.42, with a range of $27.42 to $31.53, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Warehouses Fetch Premium While Fair Value Lags
Picture a landlord collecting steady rents from distribution centres across forty one states yet asking investors to pay forty two dollars for every dollar of earnings. STAG shows solid nine percent revenue growth and a twenty eight percent profit margin, yet its price sits more than fifty percent above our fair value estimate with a forward multiple of forty seven times. The ethical screen clears but the numbers do not, so we pass.
High valuations like this often mask thin returns on equity, here just seven percent, and leave little room if interest rates stay elevated or leasing demand softens. Analyst targets cluster near the current price, yet that consensus rarely accounts for mean reversion in property yields. The gap between quoted value and intrinsic worth is the core issue.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
STAG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-10-27Markdown$36.59+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$36.59+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$36.59+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$36.59+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$36.59+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$36.59+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$36.59+2.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$35.88-0.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$36.01+0.8%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $41.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
