NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 09:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Airports & Air Services
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V.
OMAB · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $4.8B · 1,190 employees
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
98.73 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. holds its Markdown at $98.73. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 477 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 477 days
Price at the screen
$98.73
Valuation
14.87 trailing · 11.68 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.32
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.92%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.45%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.34%
Below 5%
Only 1.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 47.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mexican airports print cash but we pass
Picture a business traveller touching down in Monterrey or a tourist hitting the beach at Mazatlan. Every landing and departure feeds straight into this operator's pockets through fees that keep rolling in regardless of who runs the airline. Revenue is growing at 7 percent, profit margins sit at 33 percent and return on equity reaches 43 percent, all while the shares trade on a forward multiple of just 11.9 times.
Yet the opportunity rating stays at none. The moat is unknown, analyst price targets sit well below our own fair value and the business lacks the clear, durable edge we demand before committing capital even though the ethical screen clears without issue.
Mexico exposure adds real cyclical and currency risk that could turn strong airport economics into sharp earnings swings when travel slows or the peso moves. The low multiple reflects that uncertainty rather than a bargain.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Mexico and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OMAB trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Mexico). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Markdown$104.22-6.3%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $124.
2026-08-07Markdown$111.21+9.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $124.
2026-07-18Markdown$101.77+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $124.
2026-07-03Markdown$101.77+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$101.77Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
