Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.26, read 2026-11-05
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price190.02 USD
Fair value290.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Accumulation164.83+15.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since August
2026-10-21Read Markup160.31+18.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup
2026-10-02Read Distribution166.15+14.4% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 10% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-08Read Markdown185.52+2.4% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $190.02. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 68 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 68 days
Price at the screen
$190.02
Valuation
34.93 trailing · 7.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.95
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
The Read, in Plain English
Nexstar Media Group, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $290.00 fair value, 62.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 34.5% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $290.00, with a range of $290.00 to $375.94, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Local TV looks cheap but earns little
Picture a portfolio of local TV stations beaming news and sports into living rooms across America. Nexstar owns or runs many of them, yet the numbers show thin 3% profit margins and just 7% return on equity despite 13% revenue growth. The low 7.6 times forward earnings multiple reflects that reality rather than a bargain.
We pass because the business generates modest returns and carries an unknown competitive moat in a sector shifting toward streaming and digital ads. Analyst targets sit well below our own fair value, and the opportunity rating stays at none even though the ethical screen clears.
Broadcast earnings swing with advertising cycles and political spending, so today's low multiple could simply mark peak profits rather than a durable discount. Currency or regulatory moves add further pressure on cash flows. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NXST trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Accumulation$185.12+3.7%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $252. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$178.56+4.2%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $252. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$171.44+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $252. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$171.44+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $252. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$171.44+2.5%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $252. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$167.34+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $252. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$167.34+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $252. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$167.34+1.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $252. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $252. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-21Markup · changed$160.31-0.7%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $252. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
