Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price168.80 USD
Fair value290.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-08Read Markdown185.52-9.0% to today ✓
2026-08-07Read Accumulation187.97-10.2% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown174.50-3.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $168.80. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 21 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 21 days
Price at the screen
$168.80
Valuation
31.97 trailing · 7.24 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 71.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +48% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Local TV looks cheap but earns little
Picture a portfolio of local TV stations beaming news and sports into living rooms across America. Nexstar owns or runs many of them, yet the numbers show thin 3% profit margins and just 7% return on equity despite 13% revenue growth. The low 7.6 times forward earnings multiple reflects that reality rather than a bargain.
We pass because the business generates modest returns and carries an unknown competitive moat in a sector shifting toward streaming and digital ads. Analyst targets sit well below our own fair value, and the opportunity rating stays at none even though the ethical screen clears.
Broadcast earnings swing with advertising cycles and political spending, so today's low multiple could simply mark peak profits rather than a durable discount. Currency or regulatory moves add further pressure on cash flows. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NXST trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Markdown · changed$185.52-1.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $252. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $252. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Markdown$174.50+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $252.
2026-07-03Markdown$174.50+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$174.50Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
