Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price15.47 USD
Fair value12.19
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-02Read Markdown14.70+5.2% to today
2026-08-02Read Accumulation15.08+2.6% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup16.69-7.3% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Irsa Inversiones Y Representaciones SA ADR holds its Accumulation at $15.47. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 131 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 131 days
Price at the screen
$15.47
Valuation
4.62 trailing · 59.73 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
16.85%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 16.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.33%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.66%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
10.89%
Below 5%
10.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 21.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Argentine Malls Face Thin Safety Margins
Picture a developer juggling shopping centres and hotels across Argentina while the peso lurches every few months. IRSA shows solid revenue growth at 29 percent and a 73 percent profit margin, yet our fair value sits just below the current price and leaves almost no margin of safety. With no discernible moat and a forward P/E of 27.6 times, the numbers do not justify stepping in.
The business earns a 22 percent return on equity and clears our ethical screen, which is welcome. Still, the combination of zero competitive protection and a valuation that already prices in the good times leaves little room for error once local conditions shift.
Argentina remains a high-volatility setting where currency moves and policy swings can erase reported gains quickly. Real-estate cycles amplify those swings, and the lack of any durable edge makes this exposure hard to justify at present levels. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Argentina and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IRS trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Argentina). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-02Markdown · changed$14.70-2.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-18Markup$16.69+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-03Markup$16.69+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$16.69Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.