Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price30.23 USD
Fair value32.38
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-23Read Markdown35.00-13.6% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup37.45-19.3% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Saul Centers, Inc. holds its Markdown at $30.23. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 545 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 545 days
Price at the screen
$30.23
Valuation
31.16 trailing · 22.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.88
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
74.07%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 74.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.22%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.05%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 7.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +42% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Local shopping centres rarely justify premium prices
Picture a strip mall where the same tenants renew leases year after year. Saul Centers owns sixty-two such assets across the United States, yet the shares sit eleven percent above our fair value at thirty-six dollars sixty-five. Revenue has grown nine percent, but a forward multiple of twenty-six point nine times earnings and a ten percent return on equity leave little margin for error in a sector already facing online shifts.
The opportunity rating stays at none because the business shows no durable edge. Profit margins sit at twelve percent, analyst targets of forty-four dollars rest on only two voices, and the unknown moat offers no protection against rising rates or changing footfall. Ethical screening clears the name, yet valuation discipline still rules it out.
Retail property values can swing with consumer habits and interest costs, so paying above fair value simply adds risk without extra reward. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BFS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markdown · changed$35.00-4.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $44.
2026-07-22Markup$36.65-2.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $44.
2026-07-18Markup$37.45+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $44.
2026-07-03Markup$37.45+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$37.45Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
