Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price168.10
Fair value161.69
Ethical score50.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markup168.10+0.0% to today ✓
2026-07-25Read Distribution185.95-9.6% to today ✓
2026-07-20Read Markdown185.95-9.6% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
AstraZeneca PLC holds its Distribution at $168.10. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$168.10
Valuation
27.40 trailing · 28.48 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 50.0
Beta
0.22
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
The Read, in Plain English
AstraZeneca clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $161.69 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 12.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in , drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +34% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 28.5x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 4% above our $161.69 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The moderate moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings; as a drug manufacturers - general name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AZN trades on NASDAQ (ADR) (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markup · changed$168.10-9.6%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $224.
2026-08-27Distribution$185.95+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $224.
2026-07-27Distribution$185.95+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$185.95+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markdown$185.95+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markdown$185.95+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markdown$185.95+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markdown$185.95+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markdown$185.95+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
