NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Silver
Aya Gold & Silver Inc.
AYA · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $3.8B · 810 employees
Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metals projects in Morocco.
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. holds its Accumulation at $26.70. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 47 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 47 days
Price at the screen
$26.70
Valuation
34.68 trailing · 11.61 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.79
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
17.97%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
26.93%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 26.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.08%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 40.3% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Silver growth story priced beyond its fair value
Picture a miner in Morocco chasing silver veins that can vanish with the next price swing. Aya shows eye catching numbers with revenue up 247 percent, 30 percent profit margins and 24 percent return on equity, yet the shares sit 15 percent above our fair value estimate and carry an opportunity rating of none.
The forward earnings multiple of 8.2 times looks attractive on the surface, but this is a cyclical business where low multiples often signal peak earnings rather than a bargain. Unknown competitive moat and exposure to commodity swings mean the growth may not hold when silver prices turn.
Valuation risk sits front and centre, with operations in an emerging market adding further uncertainty around costs and permitting. The ethical screen passes cleanly, yet that alone does not justify stretching beyond fair value. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AYA trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup$27.19+45.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 45.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%.
2026-07-22Markup$18.75+0.2%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%.
2026-07-18Markup$18.71+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%.
2026-07-03Markup$18.71+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$18.71Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.