An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metals projects in Morocco.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $18.75
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. holds its Markup at $18.75.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 40 days
Price
$18.75
Valuation
31.25 trailing · 8.15 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.69
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$18.75
31.25 P/E · 8.15 fwd
Our fair value
$15.94
15% premium
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$18.75
you are here
Conservative
$14.58
-22%
Our fair value
$15.94
-15%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Revenue growth
246.60%
Profit margin
30.45%
Debt to equity
21.39
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Silver growth story priced beyond its fair value
Picture a miner in Morocco chasing silver veins that can vanish with the next price swing. Aya shows eye catching numbers with revenue up 247 percent, 30 percent profit margins and 24 percent return on equity, yet the shares sit 15 percent above our fair value estimate and carry an opportunity rating of none.
The forward earnings multiple of 8.2 times looks attractive on the surface, but this is a cyclical business where low multiples often signal peak earnings rather than a bargain. Unknown competitive moat and exposure to commodity swings mean the growth may not hold when silver prices turn.
Valuation risk sits front and centre, with operations in an emerging market adding further uncertainty around costs and permitting. The ethical screen passes cleanly, yet that alone does not justify stretching beyond fair value. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in AYA's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
AYA trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Canada). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. Entered 2026-07-22 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-22Markup$18.75+0.2%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%.
2026-07-18Markup$18.71+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%.
2026-07-03Markup$18.71+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$18.71Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$19.86
-18.8%
·
$812
-18.8%
2 months
$16.14
-0.1%
·
$999
-0.1%
3 months
$16.98
-5.0%
·
$950
-5.0%
6 months
$14.77
+9.2%
·
$1,092
+9.2%
1 year
$10.57
+52.6%
·
$1,526
+52.6%
2 years
$10.31
+56.5%
·
$1,565
+56.5%
3 years
$6.91
+133.4%
·
$2,334
+133.4%
5 years
$6.88
+134.5%
·
$2,345
+134.5%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AYA does next, these words stay.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. · AYA · Markup · $18.75
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically