Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price171.54 USD
Fair value145.91
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-21Read Distribution188.62-9.1% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup200.82-14.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. holds its Distribution at $171.54. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-02
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days
Price at the screen
$171.54
Valuation
N/A trailing · 9.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.70
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.59%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
2.17%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
28.26%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 28.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.73%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
Picture a West Virginia miner loading coal onto trains while prices swing from boom to bust with every steel mill order. Alpha Metallurgical Resources trades at a forward multiple of 5.3 times, yet revenue is already shrinking one percent and both profit margins and return on equity sit in negative territory. The market offers a modest cushion to our fair value, but the opportunity rating stays at none because this is classic cyclical window dressing, not a durable bargain.
The business runs nineteen mines and eight load out sites selling metallurgical coal into a narrow set of steel customers. Analyst consensus sits at hold with a median target only slightly above the current price, and the moat remains unknown. Ethical screens clear, yet the numbers show a company whose earnings peak exactly when steel demand peaks, leaving little room for sustained returns once the cycle turns.
Low multiples in this sector often signal the top of the earnings cycle rather than value, and negative returns already hint that peak profits may lie behind us. Currency, steel demand and regulatory pressure on coal add further swings that a thin margin of safety cannot absorb. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution$175.49-7.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $194.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 24.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $194.
2026-08-21Markup$151.95+5.7%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $194.
2026-07-21Markup$143.80-28.4%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 28.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $194.
2026-07-18Markup$200.82+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $194.
2026-07-17Markup$200.82+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $194.
2026-07-03Markup$200.82+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$200.82Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
