Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price67.62 USD
Fair value54.66
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markup67.62+0.0% to today ✓
2026-09-01Read Markdown74.82-9.6% to today ✓
2026-08-29Read Distribution74.82-9.6% to today ✓
2026-08-21Read Markup74.82-9.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ambarella, Inc. holds its Markup at $67.62. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$67.62
Valuation
N/A trailing · 60.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
2.09
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.34%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
7.87%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Ambarella, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +33% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Vision chip maker sits above fair value
Every time a security camera or car sensor spots trouble, Ambarella's chips handle the edge processing. The business still posts a 17% negative profit margin and negative 12% return on equity, even as revenue rises 17% a year.
We pass because the shares trade at 53.9 times forward earnings, above our fair value of 59.38 dollars against the current 61.84 dollar price. That offers no margin of safety and sits alongside a weak moat in a crowded chip market.
High multiples leave little buffer if growth slows or bigger rivals take share. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMBA trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markup · changed$67.62-9.6%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-09-03Markdown$74.82+0.0%Entry 14
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-02Markdown$74.82+0.0%Entry 13
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-01Markdown · changed$74.82+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Distribution$74.82+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Distribution$74.82+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-28Markup$74.82+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-27Markup$74.82+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-21Markup$74.82+21.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 21.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
