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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement Retail
Home Depot (The)
HD · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $313.0B · 472,400 employees
The Home Depot, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
313.70 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Home Depot (The) holds its Markdown at $313.70. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$313.70
Valuation
21.95 trailing · 19.56 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.96
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
62.18%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 62.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.11%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.08%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 3% discount to our $322.30 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 5.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 2.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 32 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Home Improvement Giant Struggles with Debt
Imagine you're about to renovate your home. You walk into Home Depot, aisles filled with tools and materials for every project. But behind the scenes, the company is carrying a heavy debt load that's weighing it down. With a debt ratio that fails our ethical screen, Home Depot is struggling to keep afloat financially, a stark contrast to the robust selection of items it offers.
Why it stands out, or rather, why we're passing, is multifaceted. Despite a forward P/E of 21, which suggests reasonable valuation, the stock's price sits above our fair value estimate of $322.89 by a slim 4%, indicating a lack of margin of safety. Coupled with a 6% revenue growth and an ROE of 104%, the numbers might seem compelling, but the debt issue is a glaring red flag.
Risk factors are significant, primarily due to the company's narrow moat and the ethical failing on debt ratio. The market consensus is bullish, with a median target of $379, but with a debt-ridden balance sheet, the potential for instability is high. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HD trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-17Markdown · changed$313.70-11.2%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372.
2026-08-18Markup$353.14+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-16Markup$353.14+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-15Markup$353.14+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-14Markup$353.14+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-13Markup$353.14+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-12Markup$353.14+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-11Markup$353.14+6.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$332.98+7.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372.
2026-07-18Distribution$310.78+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
