Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price56.95 USD
Fair value71.33
Ethical score91.4/100
RatingOPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-21Read Markdown56.71+0.4% to today
2026-08-21Read Markup62.99-9.6% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution57.20-0.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
A. O. Smith holds its Markdown at $56.95. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$56.95
Valuation
15.80 trailing · 13.86 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 91.4
Beta
1.15
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
6.11%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 6.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.60%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
24.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 24.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 25% discount to our $71.33 fair value, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 25.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +23% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Everyday Water Heaters Hide Strong Cash Returns
Think of the boiler in a suburban home or the tank in a hotel basement. A. O. Smith makes those essential pieces and still clears a 14 percent profit margin with 28 percent return on equity. The shares sit at 58.85 dollars against a 67.66 dollar fair value, a 15 percent margin of safety, and a forward multiple of just 14.1 times. Moderate moat, clean ethical screen and double-digit margins in a basic industrial niche make the case stand out.
Revenue slipped 2 percent lately, yet the business keeps throwing off cash while analysts sit on a hold rating with a 70 dollar median target. That combination of solid returns and a depressed multiple is what draws attention here.
Housing cycles and any fresh slowdown in China or North America could pressure volumes further. The numbers still show value rather than a bargain trap. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AOS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-21Markdown · changed$56.71-10.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-08-21Markup · changed$62.99+7.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-21Distribution$58.85+2.9%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-18Distribution$57.20+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-17Distribution$57.20+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (91). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-03Distribution$57.20+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (91). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$57.20Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (91). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
