Screened 2026-09-02 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
MKS Inc holds its Distribution at $251.38. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 266 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-02
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 266 days
Price at the screen
$251.38
Valuation
40.03 trailing · 14.28 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.00
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
50.56%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 50.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.79%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 75.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +69% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chip equipment supplier offers little edge today
Every wafer that leaves a fab depends on vacuum and laser kit that keeps the process running. MKS supplies that kit across the big semiconductor hubs. The business posts 15% revenue growth and clears an 8% profit margin, yet returns on equity sit at just 13% with only a narrow moat.
Those figures explain why the shares trade below our fair value of 387.88 against a 21.3 times forward earnings multiple. Analyst targets cluster around 380 and the ethical screen clears, but the combination of modest profitability and limited competitive protection leaves no real margin of safety at the current price.
The main risk is the sharp cyclical swings in semiconductor capital spending that can flatten growth and margins for years at a time. A narrow moat offers little shelter when orders slow. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MKSI trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-05Markdown · changed$251.38-11.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 66% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 236%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $360.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 66% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 236%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $360.
2026-07-18Accumulation$355.69+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 66% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 236%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $360.
2026-07-03Accumulation$355.69+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$355.69Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
