Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price14.63 USD
Fair value29.26
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution0.76+1,815.2% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alight Inc holds its Distribution at $14.63. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 25 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-13
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 25 days
Price at the screen
$14.63
Valuation
N/A trailing · 2.77 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.59
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.45%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-13 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +78% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-13 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Employee platform trades cheap but shows no edge
Picture a benefits admin service that helps workers navigate healthcare and retirement across borders. The price sits far below our fair value with a forward multiple of just 3.3x, yet revenue is already shrinking 3 percent and the company posts a 138 percent negative profit margin alongside negative 117 percent return on equity. No moat exists, so the low multiple reflects a business that is losing ground rather than a bargain waiting to recover.
We pass because the ethical screen clears but nothing else does. Shrinking sales and heavy losses point to structural weakness in a competitive field where bigger players already dominate cloud benefits software. Analyst targets sit higher yet fail to offset the absence of any durable advantage that could turn the numbers around.
Risks centre on further revenue erosion and the chance that low earnings multiples simply mark peak losses rather than an entry point. Execution on the cloud platform will need to improve sharply just to stabilise the base. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALIT trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Distribution$14.63-32.7%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 32.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 87%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2.
2026-07-21Distribution$21.74+2,745.9%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2745.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 87%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2.
2026-07-18Distribution$0.76+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 87%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2.
2026-07-17Distribution$0.76+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 87%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2.
2026-07-03Distribution$0.76+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$0.76Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.