Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 19:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Pegasystems Inc. holds its Markup at $36.24. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$36.24
Valuation
20.59 trailing · 13.71 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
4.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 4.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
13.07%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 13.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
29.24%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 29.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.78%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 48.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Software Giant Priced for Trouble Not Growth
Picture a high-end factory that still stamps out premium parts but is suddenly taking fewer orders. Pegasystems finds itself in that spot. Revenue is shrinking 10 percent, yet the shares trade at just 10.6 times forward earnings with a 20 percent profit margin and a striking 52 percent return on equity. On paper the valuation looks generous next to our own fair-value estimate, but the top-line decline tells a different story about demand.
We pass because the business shows no clear path back to consistent growth and its competitive edge remains unclear. Analysts see upside and set targets near 58 dollars, yet those forecasts rest on hopes that new licence deals will reappear quickly. Without visible momentum, the low multiple simply reflects the risk that earnings could follow revenue lower.
The real danger is a classic value trap. Peak margins can mask fading relevance in enterprise software, and an unknown moat leaves little protection if larger rivals keep winning deals. Currency moves and slower IT spending add further pressure in a cyclical industry. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PEGA trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markup · changed$34.00+7.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-18Markdown$32.76+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-03Markdown$32.76+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$32.76Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.