NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 07:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
GO · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $766M · 1,642 employees
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
8.56 USD
At the last full screen 2026-05-13
Screened 2026-05-13 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. holds its Accumulation at $8.56. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 34 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-05-13
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 34 days
Price at the screen
$8.56
Valuation
0.00 trailing · 12.65 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.66
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
236.36%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 236.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
9.09%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 9.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 5% discount to our $8.97 fair value, weak competitive moat, 10.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-05-13 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 4.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-05-13 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 12.7x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. Our fair value sits at $8.97, below where it trades today. The weak moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GO trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-31Markup$8.56+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-31Markup$8.56+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-18Markup$8.56+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-03Markup$8.56+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$8.56Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.