Screened 2025-12-31 · the tape above runs as of 16:37 UTC · 29 Aug · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
NeuroPace Inc holds its Distribution at $16.08. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2025-12-31
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$16.08
Valuation
N/A trailing · -54.10 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
67.10%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 67.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
37.29%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 37.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
34.46%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 34.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.82%
Below 5%
Only 2.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2025-12-31 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 24.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2025-12-31 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-07Distribution$16.08+2.8%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-18Distribution$15.64+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-03Distribution$15.64+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$15.64Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.