Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-06-14 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 60.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-06-14 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-01Markup$22.45+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$22.45+0.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-07-18Distribution$22.45+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-07-03Distribution$22.45+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$22.45Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$22.18
+0.6%
·
$1,006
+0.6%
2 months
$26.16
-14.7%
·
$853
-14.7%
3 months
$28.14
-20.7%
·
$793
-20.7%
6 months
$28.79
-22.5%
·
$775
-22.5%
1 year
$23.53
-5.2%
·
$948
-5.2%
2 years
$8.15
+173.7%
·
$2,737
+173.7%
3 years
$4.65
+379.8%
·
$4,798
+379.8%
5 years
$8.30
+168.7%
$0.30
$2,723
+172.3%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever HRTG does next, these words stay.
Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc · HRTG · Accumulation · $22.45
Recorded 2026-06-14 · before the outcome · scored mechanically