Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price12.62 USD
Fair value9.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markup10.70+17.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 66% rise in 2 weeks
2026-09-16Read Distribution6.44+96.0% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 34% rise in 11 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown4.82+161.8% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Vince Holding Corp holds its Markup at $12.62. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$12.62
Valuation
15.29 trailing · 14.86 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.30
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
54.38%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 54.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.77%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Vince's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 54% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today VNCE does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $9.00 fair value estimate, none competitive moat, 10.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 40.2% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $9.00, with a range of $8.29 to $13.81, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 14.9x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 51% above our $9.00 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The none moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VNCE trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup$13.11+10.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 119% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 199%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $9. Since the last review it dropped out of the Titan Ethical 500.
2026-10-23Markup$11.86+10.8%Entry 7
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 130% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 199%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$10.70+66.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 66.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 199%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $9. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-09-16Distribution · changed$6.44+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 199%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-08-16Markdown$6.44+33.6%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 33.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 199%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-18Markdown$4.82+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 199%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-03Markdown$4.82+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$4.82Entry 1
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.