Screened 2026-09-03 · the tape above runs as of 19:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Telefonica Brasil SA ADR holds its Accumulation at $11.89. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-03
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$11.89
Valuation
15.05 trailing · 11.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.21
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.89%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.08%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.78%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.97%
Below 5%
Only 2.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 54.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +23% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brazil Phones Trade Cheap But We Pass
Every time a Sao Paulo family tops up a mobile plan or a small business wires money across state lines, the cash flows through local networks that global giants often overlook. Telefonica Brasil runs one of those networks, delivering steady 7% revenue growth and an 11% profit margin at a forward P/E of 13.3x. The numbers point to a narrow moat and a 32% gap to fair value, yet the stock still earns a hold rating with a $15 median target.
We pass because a 9% ROE and limited competitive edge do not justify stepping in, even with the ethical screen cleared. The business generates real cash in a tough market, but it lacks the pricing power or scale that would turn the discount into a durable advantage.
Brazil currency swings and intense local competition remain live threats that could erode those margins quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VIV trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-08-16Distribution$13.15-1.6%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-18Distribution$13.36+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-03Distribution$13.36+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$13.36Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
