NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,406+0.14%BTC$77,436VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 11:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
Philip Morris International
PM · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $287.9B · 84,900 employees
Philip Morris International Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
184.73 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Philip Morris International holds its Markup at $184.73. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$184.73
Valuation
25.37 trailing · 20.15 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Tobacco
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 7% discount to our $196.69 fair value, 10.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Smoking Through the Fog of Ethical Concerns
Imagine lighting up a cigarette, and with each puff, the smoke obscures not just your health but also your ethical vision. That's the conundrum Philip Morris International presents. As a global tobacco giant, it offers a smorgasbord of cigarettes and smoke-free alternatives under brands like IQOS and VEEV. Yet, the company's business activity flunks our ethical screen, a clear red flag in our books.
Despite a forward P/E of 20.9x and a 10% revenue growth, the numbers can't mask the ethical failings. Philip Morris sits at a profit margin of 26%, which might seem like a robust yield, but the market consensus is fragmented with no clear rating and a median target price of $210. The opportunity rating of AVOID is not due to a lack of financial performance, but the ethical smokescreen that surrounds it.
Risks are manifold, with the company's moat being unknown and the ethical failings a significant concern. The market may price it one way, but our ethical-first approach steers us clear from the smoke and mirrors of such businesses. Remember, when the ethical compass points away, it's often wise to follow. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markup$191.52-0.8%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193.
2026-07-22Markup$192.98+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$192.98+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$192.98+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markup$192.98+8.2%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$178.29+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markup$178.29+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Markup$178.29+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markup$178.29+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$178.29Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
