NAS100 (US Tech 100) — Daily Framework Read | Wednesday 13 May 2026
analysis as of pre-market | CPI 3.8% shock context | Not financial advice
HEADLINE STATE: LONG — 100% Conviction / Structure Mixed
Every timeframe aligns to the long side, but price is pressing inside a tight rising channel with mixed structural signals. The framework is fully committed directionally — the caution is about when to act, not which way to lean. CPI at 3.8% injected overnight volatility; tech absorbed the shock and held its footing. Price closed at $29,064. The setup builds toward $29,215 as the entry trigger.
Key Levels
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Entry trigger | $29,215 | Above current price — confirms strength |
| Current close | $29,065 | the framework reference price (NDX) |
| Stop loss | $29,000 | Below channel floor — invalidates setup |
| T1 — Channel midline | ~$29,450 | First profit target, partial exit |
| Session high | $29,188 | Resistance to watch intraday |
| Session low | $28,629 | CPI panic low — should not revisit |
Structure · Momentum · Flow
Structure
Rising channel intact but compressed. Price is coiling near the upper third. Mixed across shorter timeframes — not yet a clean breakout, not yet a breakdown. The longer picture is constructive.
Momentum
Long bias is strong. The daily closed down 0.87% post-CPI but that is a healthy pullback inside an uptrend, not a trend break. Recovery above $29,215 confirms buyers absorbed the data.
Flow
VIX at 17.99 — falling from the CPI spike high of 19.1. Declining fear with tech holding is bullish flow. Institutional positioning consistent with risk-on regime. Volume came in heavy on the dip.
Long Case vs Short Case
LONG CASE
- 100% conviction read — all timeframes aligned long
- CPI shock absorbed, price held above $28,629
- VIX declining into session — fear fading
- Entry above $29,215 confirms buyers back in control
- Risk-on regime confirmed in the framework
SHORT CASE
- CPI 3.8% above expectations — rate cut timeline extends
- Tight channel = low room for error on entry timing
- Mixed shorter-timeframe structure
- Failure below $29,000 reopens $28,629 gap
- Not the setup for counter-trend shorts today
Sizing Guidance
Risk per trade: standard allocation only. The channel is tight — $215 of space between current price and entry, then $215 to the stop. That is a 1:1 risk-to-entry, roughly 2:1 risk-reward to T1. Do not size up in compression — wait for the breakout to confirm before adding. One unit in, scale at midline.
Entry only triggers on a move through $29,215. No anticipatory entries below that level.