PLGO · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.1B · 108 employees
Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited provides insurance and reinsurance solutions in Bermuda, the Republic of Ireland, and the United Kingdom.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
25.32 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-07
Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Pelagos Insurance Capital Limit holds its Markup at $25.32. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$25.32
Valuation
6.28 trailing · 6.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 14.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance Name Hits Cheap Multiple But Ethics Block
Picture a Bermuda desk quoting cover on storms and shipping losses that never quite materialise the way the models expect. Pelagos trades at 6.2 times forward earnings with a 15 percent profit margin and 16 percent return on equity, yet revenue is already shrinking 7 percent and nine analysts see no upside from here. The ethical screen rules it out on sector grounds alone, so the low multiple and modest 14 percent gap to our fair value never get considered.
That leaves the usual insurance traps in plain sight. A single bad hurricane season or a run of portfolio claims can wipe out years of underwriting profit, and the declining top line suggests pricing pressure or lost business rather than a temporary dip. Currency and regulatory moves across Ireland and the UK add further swings that the headline numbers do not capture.
We therefore pass without hesitation. The valuation looks attractive only if you ignore the ethical line we draw on the entire sector. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Bermuda and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PLGO trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Bermuda). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markup$25.32+1.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-08-08Markup$25.07+6.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-18Markup$23.65+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-03Markup$23.65+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$23.65Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.