MAIN · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.2B · 110 employees
Main Street Capital Corporation is a business development company and a small business investment company specializing in direct and indirect investments.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
55.80 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Main Street Capital Corporation holds its Markdown at $55.80. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$55.80
Valuation
11.20 trailing · 14.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.73
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 10.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Small business fund trips the ethical line
Main Street Capital funnels capital into lower middle market US companies that banks often overlook. Yet we pass without hesitation because the holding sits in financial services, a sector our screen rules out on principle. The ethical filter exists for exactly these cases, regardless of the underlying loan book.
Numbers paint a picture of modest returns at a premium price. Revenue inches ahead at just 2 percent, profit margins sit high at 75 percent, and ROE reaches 14 percent, yet the shares trade at 14.1 times forward earnings against a fair value 18 percent below the current quote. Analyst consensus calls it a hold with a median target near the present level, offering little margin for error.
High reported margins can mask cyclical credit risk and fee pressure in this corner of asset management. The ethical screen already removes any upside case, so the valuation gap simply reinforces the decision to stay clear. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MAIN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markup$58.92+8.3%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57.
2026-08-05Markup · changed$54.41+4.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57.
2026-07-18Distribution$52.02+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57.
2026-07-03Distribution$52.02+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$52.02Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.