The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
KNSL · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $8.3B · 711 employees
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
362.70 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $362.70. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 253 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 253 days
Price at the screen
$362.70
Valuation
14.73 trailing · 16.76 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance Numbers Look Fine But Ethics Say No
Picture a builder in Texas or a clinic in Ohio paying premiums each month to cover the unexpected. Kinsale collects those premiums and aims to price the risk just right, delivering 10% revenue growth, 27% profit margins and 30% returns on equity. The business itself shows disciplined underwriting in a crowded field, yet none of that matters once the ethical screen is applied.
We pass without hesitation. The sector itself carries a prohibited keyword that triggers an automatic fail, regardless of valuation or growth. At a forward multiple of 15.9 times and a share price sitting just above our fair value, the numbers are neither compelling nor cheap enough to override that hard rule.
The real constraint is therefore non-negotiable. Any exposure here would breach the screen we apply to every name, and that boundary exists to keep the list clean. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KNSL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 11.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $355.
2026-08-04Markup · changed$355.87+14.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $355.
2026-07-18Distribution$311.38+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $355.
2026-07-03Distribution$311.38+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$311.38Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
