ESRT · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.3B · 642 employees
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
4.39 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-01
Screened 2026-09-01 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. holds its Distribution at $4.39. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 21 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-01
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 21 days
Price at the screen
$4.39
Valuation
219.50 trailing · 73.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.39
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
53.70%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 53.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.46%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.14%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-01 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 20.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +37% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-01 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Empire State Realty Trades Far Above Fair Value
Picture the Empire State Building lighting up the skyline at night. The REIT that owns it still cannot escape a simple fact: the shares sit at 5.77 against a fair value of just 3.34. With revenue growing only 5 percent, a 5 percent profit margin and 3 percent return on equity, the business shows little sign of the earnings power needed to close that gap. We pass.
The forward multiple of 96 times earnings leaves almost no room for the modest growth already priced in. Analysts sit on a hold rating with a 6 dollar median target, yet even that figure sits well above the value our work supports. The ethical screen clears, yet the numbers do not.
New York office and multifamily markets remain exposed to remote working trends and rising vacancies. A cyclical downturn could compress cash flows further and widen the gap between price and underlying worth. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ESRT trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 16.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-28Markup$5.77+6.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-18Markup$5.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-03Markup$5.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$5.44Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
