Nvidia (NVDA)
MACRO LONG
Friday Close • 25 May 2026
EARNINGS WATCH — Wednesday After Close
Nvidia reports quarterly results this coming Wednesday after the bell. Elevated volatility is expected going into and coming out of the print. Size accordingly and be aware that levels can gap through without warning.
The Read
Nvidia has been grinding back toward a critical area of interest all week, and Friday’s close left the structure intact. The macro picture is committed to the long side. Every layer of analysis agrees on direction, momentum has been rising across the layers, and there is nothing acting as a ceiling right now. That kind of broad alignment is the setup you want to see before a name like this makes a significant leg higher. The question is not which way it wants to go — it is whether the entry is timed well enough to survive the earnings volatility that is coming in days.
The dark pool data reinforces the picture. $4.31 billion flowed through Nvidia in 777 institutional-sized orders this week. That is not speculative money; that is conviction. Institutions do not commit that kind of firepower into a name that is rolling over. Options flow is equally clear, with the put-to-call ratio sitting below 0.6, meaning the positioning overwhelmingly favours upside. These are not retail punters buying lottery tickets — these are funds building positions ahead of a catalyst they believe is favourable.
The nuance is the pullback. The analysis flags a pullback as approved and expected, not as a warning. This is the framework drawing a distinction between healthy price behaviour and something breaking down. A dip toward support gives late entrants a better location. The underlying trend is still rising. If Wednesday’s print comes in ahead of expectations, which institutional positioning is suggesting is the more likely scenario, the levels above become the immediate destination. If you are already positioned, the approach is to manage risk going into the number. If you are watching, the structure will tell you what you need to know on Thursday morning.
Key Levels
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Zone | $130.50 – $132.00 | Pullback into structural support |
| Stop | $127.50 | Below key structural base |
| Target 1 | $140.00 | Prior resistance, partial exit |
| R:R | ~1.8:1 | Based on midpoint entry |
Risk Assessment
Around 55%
Elevated by the earnings event on Wednesday. Even with everything aligned long, binary events introduce gap risk that stops cannot protect against. The structural case is strong but the timing is the risk. Reduce normal position sizing by at least a third until the print resolves.
Experience Guidance
Newer traders should not be opening fresh positions into a Wednesday earnings event unless they have a specific plan for managing the overnight risk. The structure is bullish and the long thesis is sound, but a gap down on a miss can wipe out weeks of work before you get a chance to react. If you are already in a position, consider locking in a portion of profit before Tuesday’s close. If you are watching from the sideline, the better opportunity may be the Thursday open once the dust settles and the market has voted on the number.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading financial instruments carries significant risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.