The Euro has been fighting Dollar weakness all week and winning. The pair pushed to a fresh high earlier in the session, pulled back into a well-established demand zone, and then recovered into the close. That sequence, an attempt at a high, a controlled test of support, and a close in the upper half of the weekly range, is the kind of price action that precedes further upside rather than a reversal. The structure is clearly defined. Sellers have tried repeatedly to regain control and failed.
The analysis flagged trend line breaks at key highs and lows this week, and the read throughout has remained long. A key development was the moment when the pair broke through a prior reference level mid-week and then came back to retest it from above. That retest held. When a level that was previously resistance flips to support and price confirms it, that is about as clean a continuation signal as FX gives you. The momentum has been building in EUR’s favour for several sessions now.
The level to watch on any Tuesday open is the 1.1270 to 1.1290 zone. That is where the prior breakout occurred and where buyers stepped in on the mid-week retest. A clean hold there keeps the 1.1400 target alive. A break below 1.1250 on volume would be a different conversation entirely, suggesting the weekly structure is in question and requiring a reassessment of the bias before committing fresh capital.
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Zone | 1.1270 – 1.1295 | Breakout retest zone, prior resistance flipped support |
| Stop | 1.1220 | Below structural demand, weekly bias invalidated |
| Target 1 | 1.1400 | Weekly resistance, measured upside |
| Target 2 | 1.1480 | Extension target, multi-month level |
| R:R | 2.9 : 1 | To Target 1 from mid-entry |
The structural setup here is one of the cleaner ones in FX right now. The trend is defined, the levels are clear, and the analysis has been consistent. The risk score sits at 40% primarily because of two factors: the extended nature of the Dollar’s decline and the bank holiday weekend effect on liquidity. EUR/USD is also highly sensitive to any shift in ECB or Fed commentary over the weekend. If a central bank official makes noise, the pair can move 50 to 80 pips before anyone can react. That is a calendar risk, not a structural one.
The best EUR/USD setups always come from patience. If you missed the move earlier in the week, the long weekend actually gives you an opportunity rather than a problem. Wait for Tuesday’s open, watch how the pair trades through the first hour, and only enter if the 1.1270 to 1.1295 zone holds. An impulsive entry on Sunday evening or at the first sign of a gap higher is how traders give back profits. Let the structure confirm first, then size in. The trade is not going anywhere if the thesis is right.