Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Vulcan Materials Company holds its Distribution at $249.89. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$249.89
Valuation
29.50 trailing · 23.19 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 86.8
Beta
1.05
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
29.25%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 29.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.20%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.41%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.17%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $213.03 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 2.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +34% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Roadstone Supplier Priced Beyond the Boom
Think of a quarry that only sells when governments and builders are flush. Vulcan Materials sits at the heart of that cycle, shifting aggregates across the United States at a forward multiple of 26.8 times. Revenue growth of 7 percent and a 14 percent profit margin look respectable, yet the shares sit 26 percent above our fair value of 214 dollars, so we pass.
The moderate moat and clean ethical screen do not change the arithmetic. At 288 dollars the market already prices in steady expansion that construction spending rarely delivers year after year. ROE of 13 percent is adequate, not exceptional, and leaves little cushion if volumes soften.
Cyclical businesses often look most expensive right before demand flattens. Here the premium leaves investors exposed to any slowdown in infrastructure or housing, regardless of the buy-rated analyst targets. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VMC trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-16Distribution$249.89-12.9%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $329.
2026-08-16Distribution$286.77+1.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $329.
2026-07-18Distribution$281.38+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $329.
2026-07-03Distribution$281.38+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$281.38Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
