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The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Target Corporation
TGT · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $73.9B · 415,000 employees
Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
162.71 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Target Corporation holds its Markup at $162.71. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 263 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 263 days
Price at the screen
$162.71
Valuation
16.88 trailing · 17.05 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.99
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.11%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.35%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $135.87 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 5.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 34 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Target fails where the numbers look fine
Walk into any Target store and the shelves feel stocked with everyday staples that keep shoppers coming back. Yet we are staying away. The ethical screen flags a clear fail on the debt ratio, and a weak moat leaves little protection even with 22% ROE and 7% revenue growth.
Forward earnings sit at 15.6 times alongside a slim 3% profit margin. Thirty four analysts call it a buy with a $130 median target, below the current price, but none of that shifts our view.
The debt issue sits at the heart of the problem and raises real exposure if consumer spending slows. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TGT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-18Markup · changed$162.71+10.2%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $163. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-19Accumulation$147.70+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $131. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-18Accumulation$147.70+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $131. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-16Accumulation$147.70+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $131. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 20.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $131. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Distribution$122.57+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $131. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-03Distribution$122.57+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$122.57Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
