Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 08:38 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Sempra holds its Distribution at $85.47. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 282 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 282 days
Price at the screen
$85.47
Valuation
24.77 trailing · 15.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 83.7
Beta
0.56
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
31.59%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 31.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.03%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.62%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.43%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 8% discount to our $92.52 fair value, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steady utility with little spark to chase
Picture a gas pipe that never bursts yet never widens either. Sempra runs regulated networks across California and Texas, delivering predictable cash but nothing that excites growth investors. Revenue is already shrinking 4 percent, return on equity sits at just 6 percent and the narrow moat offers scant protection if costs keep rising.
At 16.7 times forward earnings the shares trade almost exactly at our fair value with only a 2 percent margin of safety. Analysts may still rate it a buy with a 104 dollar median target, yet the business shows no sign of accelerating profits or widening its edge. Ethical checks clear, but that alone does not create an opportunity.
The real danger lies in higher borrowing costs and tighter state regulation that could squeeze already modest returns. Low growth plus average valuation equals a classic trap for anyone expecting more than slow dividends. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SRE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-13Distribution$85.47+1.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-08-13Distribution$84.66-7.4%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-07-18Distribution$91.42+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-07-03Distribution$91.42+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$91.42Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
