NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Packaging & Containers
Packaging Corporation of America
PKG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $20.3B · 16,800 employees
Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
227.28 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Packaging Corporation of America holds its Markdown at $227.28. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 119 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 119 days
Price at the screen
$227.28
Valuation
29.52 trailing · 17.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.80
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.70%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.62%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.64%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $189.66 fair value estimate, 14.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Packaging firm priced above its real worth
Every time a warehouse stacks another pallet of boxes, the order book rises and falls with factory output and online orders. Packaging Corporation of America sits right in that cycle, yet the shares trade at a 22 percent premium to our fair value of 182 dollars while carrying a forward multiple of 18.5 times. We pass because the valuation already prices in better days that a cyclical business rarely delivers for long.
Revenue growth of 11 percent and an 8 percent profit margin look respectable on paper, yet the 16 percent return on equity comes with an ethical red flag on debt levels that the screen rejects outright. In packaging the trap is classic: earnings can look peak just when multiples compress, leaving investors with a low multiple that is no bargain at all.
Analyst targets sit higher at 258 dollars, but that consensus ignores both the debt burden and the sector's habit of swinging hard when volumes turn. The combination of stretched valuation, ethical failure and cyclical exposure makes this one to leave alone.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PKG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$252.79-1.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236.
2026-08-08Markup$256.01+14.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236.
2026-07-18Markup$222.82+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236.
2026-07-03Markup$222.82+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$222.82Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
