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The Screen · Industrials · Software - Application
Paychex
PAYX · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $39.4B
Paychex, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides human capital management solutions (HCM) for payroll, employee benefits, human resources (HR), and insurance services for small to medium-sized businesses in the Un…
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.10, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price108.21 USD
Fair value119.39
Ethical score80.8/100
RatingOPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup110.78-2.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-09-18Read Distribution114.75-5.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-09-17Read Markup114.75-5.7% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-09-16Read Distribution114.75-5.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 14% rise in 11 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Paychex holds its Markup at $108.21. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 183 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 183 days
Price at the screen
$108.21
Valuation
21.55 trailing · 17.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 80.8
Beta
0.85
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
30.32%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 30.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.31%
Below 5%
Only 1.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Paychex clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 30%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when PAYX's ethical verdict changes
Today PAYX passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 10% discount to our $119.39 fair value, 5.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 10.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Payroll handler sits close to fair value
Every Friday when a small workshop owner hits send on the wage run, Paychex is the quiet system moving the cash. The business delivers 12% revenue growth and 27% profit margins while clearing our ethical screen without flags. At 17.9 times forward earnings it trades almost exactly at our fair value estimate, leaving little room on either side.
That stability explains the hold consensus from fourteen analysts, even if their median target sits a touch lower. The numbers show a reliable cash engine serving millions of modest firms, not a high-growth story priced for perfection.
The unknown moat and single-digit margin of safety are the real limits here. Any slowdown in hiring or fresh payroll competition could close the narrow gap quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PAYX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markup · changed$110.78+0.0%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $102.
2026-10-21Distribution$110.78+6.5%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $102.
2026-10-14Distribution$103.98+4.7%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $102.
2026-10-02Distribution$99.30-13.5%Entry 11
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $102.
2026-09-21Distribution$114.75+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $102. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-19Distribution$114.75+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $102. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $102. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-17Markup · changed$114.75+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $102. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $102. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-09Markup$124.48+5.2%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $102.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
