Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.43, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price18.33 USD
Fair value17.60
Ethical score86.6/100
RatingQUALITY, FULLY VALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Distribution18.33+0.0% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after an 18% slide in 4 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown22.42-18.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 7% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-05Read Markup24.00-23.6% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 5% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-05Read Accumulation22.77-19.5% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Mosaic Company (The) holds its Distribution at $18.33. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 71 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 71 days
Price at the screen
$18.33
Valuation
N/A trailing · 11.39 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 86.6
Beta
0.92
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
21.57%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
7.55%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.09%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.45%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Mosaic Company (The) clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 22%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when MOS's ethical verdict changes
Today MOS passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads QUALITY, FULLY VALUED: it trades above our $17.60 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +42% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fertiliser swings create classic cyclical value trap
Picture a mine that turns rock into the nutrients farmers need one season and then sits idle the next when crop prices collapse. Mosaic shows 14 percent revenue growth yet posts a zero profit margin and just 1 percent return on equity, all at a forward multiple of 11.8 times.
The shares sit near our fair value with an opportunity label and a clean ethical screen, while nineteen analysts still carry a buy rating and a 27 dollar median target. On paper the numbers invite a second look.
Yet this is the textbook cyclical trap. Earnings peak when demand is hottest and multiples compress right before volumes and prices roll over, leaving investors holding thin returns and a weak competitive position when the cycle turns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MOS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $27. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$17.92+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $27. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$17.92+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $27. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$17.92-4.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $27. Since the last review it entered the Titan Ethical 500.
2026-10-14Markdown$18.74-16.4%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 16.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$22.42-6.6%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-09-05Markup · changed$24.00+5.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $27.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-07-18Markdown$22.24+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-07-03Markdown$22.24+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
