The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Estée Lauder Companies (The)
EL · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $35.7B · 40,470 employees
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
98.77 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Estée Lauder Companies (The) holds its Markup at $98.77. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$98.77
Valuation
197.54 trailing · 25.24 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.27
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.59%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.38%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.80%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $92.14 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 6.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 27 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Luxury creams lose their shine on weak numbers
Walk down any high street and Estée Lauder products still sit on the shelves, yet the company is posting a negative profit margin and a negative return on equity. We pass because the shares trade at 25.8 times forward earnings while our fair value sits well below the current price and the business carries too much debt.
Revenue growth has slowed to just 5 percent and the moat looks weak, leaving little room for error if consumers trade down. The ethical screen flags the debt ratio as a clear fail, and that alone rules it out regardless of what the sell side says.
Analysts may still favour the name with a median target near 90 dollars, but peak margins and stretched valuations have trapped investors in similar consumer names before. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-19Accumulation$86.96+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-18Accumulation$86.96+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$82.13-1.6%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
2026-07-18Markup$83.49+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
2026-07-03Markup$83.49+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$83.49Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.