Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.24, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price137.94 USD
Fair value119.66
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation116.02+18.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Distribution116.02+18.9% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 10% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-20Read Accumulation128.76+7.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after an 18% rise in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution108.80+26.8% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Dollar Tree holds its Markup at $137.94. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$137.94
Valuation
16.31 trailing · 16.96 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.72
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
52.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 52.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.33%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Dollar Tree's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 52% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today DLTR does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $119.66 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 7.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 15.3% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $119.66, with a range of $88.20 to $137.61, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Discount aisles hide a heavy debt load
Walk down any Dollar Tree aisle and the low prices feel like a win for households watching every penny. Yet the company carries too much debt for our ethical screen, which rules it out before valuation even enters the frame. Forward earnings sit at 16.4 times with 7 percent revenue growth and a 7 percent profit margin, numbers that look ordinary rather than compelling.
We pass because the debt ratio breach outweighs the 34 percent ROE and narrow moat. Twenty-five analysts sit on a hold rating with a $125 median target, almost exactly where the shares trade today. The modest 11 percent gap to our fair value does not change the ethical call.
The real risk is that leverage stays elevated while consumer spending slows, leaving little room if margins compress further. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DLTR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Accumulation$133.87+7.8%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (26 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $135.
2026-10-25Accumulation$124.18+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (26 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $135.
2026-10-18Accumulation$124.18+7.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (26 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $135.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $136.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-08-27Accumulation$131.48+0.0%Entry 12
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Accumulation$131.48+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Accumulation$131.48+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Accumulation$131.48+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $124. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Accumulation$131.48+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $124. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
