ABNB · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $110.8B · 8,200 employees
Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays, experiences, and services worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
185.00 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-20
Screened 2026-08-20 · the tape above runs as of 23:26 UTC · 4 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Airbnb holds its Markup at $185.00. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 15 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-20
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 15 days
Price at the screen
$185.00
Valuation
42.24 trailing · 30.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.14
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
9.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 9.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
20.06%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 20.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
30.38%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
5.76%
Below 5%
5.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $155.02 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 16.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-20 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 39 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-20 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Travel Giant Stumbles Over Ethical Hurdle
Imagine you're a host on Airbnb, opening your home to strangers, only to find out a chunk of the company's revenue isn't as welcoming as your doormat. This is Airbnb, the lodging disruptor that's been navigating a tricky landscape of ethical concerns. The company's marketplace is a powerhouse, connecting hosts and guests for stays and experiences, but it fails our ethical screen, primarily due to revenue purity issues. Why it stands out, or in this case, why we pass – despite a strong moat and a forward P/E of 30.1x, indicating a potential for growth, Airbnb's ethical shortcomings are a deal-breaker.
The numbers are clear: with a revenue growth of 16%, a healthy profit margin of 20%, and a robust ROE of 35%, Airbnb shines financially. However, our fair value of $155.02 suggests the stock is overpriced by 16%. Risk is high here, not just from the cyclical nature of the travel industry, which can lead to a value trap with its peak earnings and low multiple, but also from the ethical standpoint which we prioritize. The consensus rating from 39 analysts is a buy, with a median target of $175, yet these numbers can't mask the underlying ethical concerns.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ABNB trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markup$185.00+31.1%Entry 13
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 31.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-05Markup$141.10+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Markup$141.10+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$141.10+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$141.10+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$141.10+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$141.10+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup · changed$141.10-3.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markdown$145.98+9.3%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Markdown$133.54+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
