Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-10
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price516.17 USD
Fair value595.29
Ethical score89.7/100
RatingFAIR VALUE
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-29Read Markup481.15+7.3% to today ✓
2026-07-18Read Distribution393.82+31.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Microsoft holds its Markup at $516.17. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 60 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 60 days
Price at the screen
$516.17
Valuation
28.72 trailing · 21.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 89.7
Beta
1.11
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
9.79%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 9.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.40%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.18%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.94%
Below 5%
Only 0.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Microsoft clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 10%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS Movement
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic and this name passes it. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for Azure cloud services contracts with Israeli government and military entities. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads FAIR VALUE: it trades at roughly a 15% discount to our $595.29 fair value, strong competitive moat, 17.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 52 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Tech Giant with Solid Ethical and Financial Scores
Imagine every time someone opens a Word document or collaborates on a PowerPoint, Microsoft is there, quietly powering it. This tech titan's reach is vast, and its revenue growth is a testament to its enduring relevance. With a strong 18% revenue growth, Microsoft stands out not just for its financial performance but also for its ethical standards, passing our ethical screen with flying colors.
The numbers paint a compelling picture. At a current price of $481.15, Microsoft is undervalued against our fair value estimate of $581.45, offering a healthy margin of safety of +21%. Its profitability is evident with a robust 40% profit margin and a 34% return on equity. These metrics, coupled with a strong moat, position Microsoft as a formidable player in the tech landscape.
Risks are moderate, given the consensus strong buy rating from 53 analysts, who have a median target price of $550. The forward P/E of 20.4x is a reflection of the market's confidence in Microsoft's future earnings. While the technology sector is competitive, Microsoft's diverse portfolio and ethical practices provide a solid foundation for growth. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MSFT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markup$516.17+7.3%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-29Markup · changed$481.15+26.1%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 26.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-28Distribution$381.70+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$381.70+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$381.70+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$381.70-3.1%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$393.82+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$393.82+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Distribution$393.82+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$393.82-5.5%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
