Every week we publish a record of what we called, what the market delivered, and where the gap sits. There is no version of this that gets edited for comfort. Calls that landed cleanly are marked confirmed. Calls that were directionally right but fell short on magnitude are marked partially. Calls that were wrong are marked missed. Calls that the market overturned entirely are marked reversed. The misses teach as much as the hits, sometimes more. No session gets cherry-picked. No awkward result gets buried in a footnote. The score is the score.

14 calls remain open. Live trades not resolved inside the four-session window. These are excluded from the denominator.

“Ranking: QQQ above SPY above IWM by performance across the week.”

Outcome: QQQ +1.4%, SPY +0.4%, IWM flat inside its prior range. The exact inter-market ranking held across all four sessions.

This was not just a direction call. It was a ranked order call across three instruments covering technology, broad market, and small caps. Getting one right is straightforward. Getting the relative order correct, in advance, across a full four-session window requires a read on how capital is moving between segments rather than just whether markets go up or down. The IWM call was particularly precise: not a miss on direction, not a partial, just a clean read that small-cap breadth was not ready to contribute and that the week’s gains would be concentrated in tech. QQQ nearly kissed its channel ceiling to within 0.17%.

“Oil lags metals if the risk-on bid is equity-focused.”

Outcome: WTI ran from $92.82 to $97.57, a 5% move that made energy the strongest sector of the window. Metals lagged. The call was precisely inverted by a Hormuz blockade headline that was not in any base case at the time of calling.

Three of four calls in Raw Materials Radar were reversed, the highest reversal concentration in any single category this week. The underlying logic was sound for a normal week: if equities are leading and the dollar is stable, industrial demand drives metals while oil sits range-bound. The Hormuz blockade changed the commodity hierarchy in a single session. Crude moved on geopolitical supply risk, not on economic demand. Metals moved on safe-haven rotation, not on cycle conviction. The analysis read the cycle correctly; it did not have sight of the exogenous event. That is the honest explanation, and it does not change the score.

The 16.5 percentage point gap between confirmed (44.8%) and directional (61.3%) tells you something specific. The majority of partial calls were directionally right and fell short on magnitude, not on direction. SPY long from 709 to 711 was the right trade. The question was whether it reached 720. It reached 713.94. QQQ long was right. The channel ceiling of 665 was within 0.17% by Friday close.

Partial calls are not failures of analysis. They are calls where the read was correct and the target was set with ambition. In a live trading account, a confirmed-only approach that hits 44.8% exactly on the right levels is less useful than an approach that gets direction right 61% of the time and helps you manage the trade once you are in it. Both numbers matter. The directional rate is what gets you into the trade; the confirmed rate is what gets you to the target.

Every call was scored against the published Friday close prices for 26 April 2026, cross-referenced against the data captured at the time each post was written. No call was added, removed, or rephrased after the window closed. Verdicts: Confirmed means the specific level or direction was hit. Partially means direction was right but magnitude fell short of the stated target. Missed means direction was wrong. Reversed means the regime changed after the call was made, inverting the thesis. Open means the call was a live trade not resolved inside the four-session window. These 14 calls are excluded from the denominator. No cherry-picking. The categories that scored 0% are listed in the same post as the categories that scored 100%.

The 27 April to 1 May window opens with four live catalysts that will resolve most of the open calls from this week. Powell speaks on Wednesday, and the rate path read will either confirm the watching call on DXY or force a repricing. Microsoft and Alphabet report on Wednesday evening with Meta following on Thursday. The institutional accumulation reads on MSFT and AAPL that scored full confirmation this week now sit directly in front of their earnings prints.

The Hormuz situation remains live. Brent at $105.88 with a $8.31 WTI-Brent spread changes the energy sector read entirely. The commodity-relative calls that reversed this week need to be reassessed against a supply-shock baseline, not a cycle-demand baseline.

The next four sessions get scored exactly the same way as this one. The calls go in on Monday. The score comes back on Friday.