The radar thesis. SPY 718.66 sitting $19 above max pain with no hedge book, VIX9D at 14.37, and front-end vol fully crushed is the cleanest picture of unhedged risk appetite the week has produced. That cuts both ways. A cool PCE extends the move toward SPY 728-730. A hot PCE finds no cushion — the nearest structural support is SPY 705, and the dark pool floor sits at 699. Crude at 112.50 and Brent at 119.79 remain the macro pressure inputs Powell already flagged as the near-term inflation channel. The single most important number on the Friday tape is not the SPX print — it is the PCE core MoM reading. Below 0.2 percent is the green light. Above 0.3 percent reloads the macro hedge book from scratch. That is the fork every setup below is built around.

What We Called vs What Happened — Wednesday Setup Radar Track Record

The Full Watchlist — 18 Instruments, Thursday Close Levels, Friday Bias

The Ten Ranked Setups — Rationale And Invalidation For Each

Setup 1 — WTI Crude Long (CONVICTION: HIGHEST) — Active now, Asia open valid

Crude at 112.50 is running a post-UAE-OPEC fragmentation narrative backed by Brent cross-confirmation at 119.79, and the energy-to-inflation pass-through the macro analysis flagged as Powell’s stated near-term inflation input — meaning a hot PCE print on Friday actually accelerates the crude bid rather than reversing it. Invalidation: a close below 107.80 on any OPEC reconciliation headline or a cold PCE that collapses growth expectations sharply.

Setup 2 — SPY Long Pullback (CONVICTION: HIGH) — PCE-cool branch only

SPY 718.66 broke $19 above Thursday’s max pain of 699, dark pool institutional flows held every Mag 7 campaign through the cohort — NVDA 1,141 orders, AAPL 287 orders, AMZN 526 orders — and the structural bid has not de-risked, which means any 714–715 pullback into the prior call wall is a genuine dip-buy opportunity rather than a distribution top, but only on a cool PCE print that validates the risk-on regime. Invalidation: SPY close below 708 on hot PCE, or below 705 on any surprise macro shock before the print lands.

Setup 3 — AAPL Post-Print Continuation (CONVICTION: HIGH) — Active now

AAPL’s clean print collapsed the front-end vol curve (VIX9D from 17.61 to 14.37 in a single session) and confirmed the dark pool campaign at 287 orders, 9.9M shares, $2.69B notional as a genuine institutional accumulation block that survived the earnings binary — the post-print setup is to ride the 268–270 demand zone while the campaign continues. Invalidation: AAPL loses 263 on a cool print miss (unlikely), or a hot PCE sends broad risk appetite into reverse and the post-print demand drains below the dark pool support level.

Setup 4 — IWM Russell 2000 Long (CONVICTION: HIGH) — Active, hold through PCE

IWM is the single-highest-beta expression of a cool PCE outcome — small-cap companies are more rate-sensitive than large-cap, so a below-consensus inflation print that takes Fed cut odds above 50 percent for 2026 sends IWM through 281 toward the structural target, and the 272.63 close sits above the Wednesday entry zone which validates the campaign extension. Invalidation: IWM below 266.50 on any session, which signals the PCE-cool thesis is off and institutional positioning has reversed.

Setup 5 — Gold Long Compression (CONVICTION: HIGH) — Active now, both-branch

Gold at 4,551.74 is the single setup that does not need a specific PCE outcome — a cool print takes it higher via dollar softness, a hot print takes it higher via inflation-hedge demand — the only scenario where gold trades lower is a Fed rate-hike signal that directly reprices the real-rate curve, which is not in Friday’s data set. Invalidation: a clean break below 4,500 on a disinflationary print that dramatically re-prices risk-free rates higher on the short end.

Setup 6 — NVDA Breakout Long (CONVICTION: MEDIUM-HIGH) — Cool PCE accelerates

NVDA’s dark pool campaign held 1,141 orders, 21.7M shares, $4.36B — the largest notional dark pool block in Thursday’s session — and the structural framework’s accumulation read is that institutional desks are building ahead of the next catalyst, with options flow showing $102.44M in contract premium, the second-largest options notional after SPX Thursday. Invalidation: NVDA loses 206 on any session or the dark pool campaign breaks below its prior order cadence, which would signal institutional de-risking is underway rather than accumulation.

Setup 7 — QQQ Continuation Long (CONVICTION: MEDIUM-HIGH) — Cool PCE only

QQQ closed 667.74 with the most active put strikes clustering at 667/666 — meaning Thursday’s close pinned exactly on the highest-volume put strike, creating an unusual tension where any Friday upside push burns put premium rapidly and creates a reflexive upward gamma squeeze toward 680. Invalidation: QQQ fails to hold 656 on any re-open, which triggers the puts-in-the-money zone and risks dealer hedging flipping from neutral to net short.

Setup 8 — SPY Hot-PCE Reversal Short (CONVICTION: MEDIUM) — Hot PCE branch only

SPY at 718.66 with no hedge book, VIX9D at 14.37, and front-end vol fully crushed is the exact configuration where a hot PCE lands with maximum price impact — the put book expired, the dealer short-gamma zone starts at 705, and the structural support target of 699 max pain becomes the first magnetic level that draws price rapidly without the slow cushion a live hedge book would provide. Invalidation: PCE core MoM prints at or below 0.2 percent, the short thesis evaporates immediately and the long-continuation setups above take precedence.

Setup 9 — USD/JPY Short Reversal (CONVICTION: MEDIUM) — Hot PCE and BoJ follow-through

USDJPY at 156.56 has already snapped 1.87 percent from Wednesday’s 160.37 high, confirming the carry-unwind trend is underway — a hot PCE that re-anchors Fed hawkishness alongside a BoJ that continues normalising creates the dual-pressure environment where USDJPY trades toward 153.50 and the yen carry trade structurally unwinds further. Invalidation: USDJPY reclaims 159 on a disinflationary PCE miss that reprices US rate expectations toward earlier easing, reversing the yen support bid from both directions simultaneously.

Setup 10 — Silver Range-Play (CONVICTION: MEDIUM) — Active both branches

Silver at 71.96 is running as the high-beta expression of the gold long — while gold holds the institutional bid, silver’s industrial component makes it responsive to the copper cycle (at 6.03 after a 2.53 percent session), and analyst commentary highlighted the oil-shock inflation dynamic as carrying a secondary metals bid through the stagflation risk channel. Invalidation: silver loses 69.80 on any session, which invalidates the metals-complex bid and signals the gold long may be weakening as well.

Index Core — Thursday Close Levels, Max Pain, PCE-Scenario Triggers

Options Structure — What Thursday’s Flow Says About Friday’s Risk

Dark Pool Flow — The Institutional Campaign Map Heading Into PCE

Three PCE Scenarios — Setups By Branch, Probabilities, And Sizing Guidance

Multi-Strategy Breakdown — By Time Horizon

Position Sizing Guidance — Pre-PCE Through Post-Print

Experience-Level Guidance — What Each Tier Should Focus On Friday

Risk Zone Map — Five Numbers That Decide Friday

Market Timing Verdict

Hedging Recommendations — What Real Protection Looks Like After The Hedge Book Expired