Raw Materials — Thursday 23 April 2026

Commodities Report | Thursday 23 April 2026 | Published 22:00 London / 17:00 New York / 07:00 Tokyo

Oil held its gains. That is the headline. After Wednesday’s 4.64% explosion to $97.27, the market expected profit-taking on Thursday. It did not come. Crude closed at $96.13, a minor 0.29% gain that consolidated the breakout rather than reversing it. When a market surges nearly 5% and then goes sideways instead of giving it back, the move is real. The longs are not leaving. The shorts are not pressing. Oil is building a base above $96 for its next leg.

Gold slipped again, down 0.43% to $4,685. Silver dropped 0.87% to $74.81. Copper held at $6.02. The metals complex is in profit-taking mode after last week’s run toward all-time highs in gold. The pullbacks are shallow and orderly, which is constructive. Deep pullbacks signal distribution. Shallow ones signal repositioning. This is repositioning.

The story across the full commodity space is divergence. Energy is bid. Metals are pausing. Agricultural commodities are mixed. That is a supply-driven commodity move, not a demand-driven one. Supply disruptions lift energy selectively. Demand booms lift everything. Knowing which type of move you are in determines which commodities to own and which to avoid.

* Natural Gas estimated from front-month futures

Oil at $96.13 is $3.87 from the century mark. The question everyone is asking is whether it gets there and what happens when it does. The answer to the first question is probably yes. Supply disruption headlines are not resolving and the market is absorbing every barrel of supply anxiety into the price without fading. That momentum does not usually stop at a round number.

The answer to the second question is more interesting. $100 oil is a psychological and political threshold. Governments respond to $100 oil. Central banks adjust policy expectations around $100 oil. Consumer sentiment shifts around $100 oil. It is the level where “energy prices are rising” becomes a headline that changes behaviour.

For traders, that means $100 is both a target and a risk level. Trade toward it. Tighten stops near it. Because the policy response to $100 oil (SPR releases, diplomatic pressure, demand destruction) could reverse $5-8 in a single session. The reward is in the approach. The risk is in the arrival.

Gold at $4,685 is down $72 from last week’s high near $4,757. That is a 1.5% pullback after a multi-week run to all-time highs. In any other context, this would be unremarkable. After a record run, 1.5% is nothing. The dip-buyers are visible on every intraday flush, stepping in between $4,660 and $4,690 with enough size to halt declines.

The structural thesis has not changed. Central bank buying is ongoing. Geopolitical hedging demand is constant. The dollar’s firming, which should theoretically pressure gold, has only produced a 1.5% decline. That is gold shrugging off a headwind. When an asset ignores bad news, the underlying demand is stronger than the surface suggests.

We called Wednesday’s silver drop a flush. It was not. Silver dropped another 0.87% on Thursday to $74.81. That is two consecutive days of weakness while gold only dips. When silver underperforms gold by this margin, it is an industrial demand signal. Silver has dual use: precious metal and industrial input. When the industrial component weakens (as it does during manufacturing slowdowns), silver underperforms gold systematically.

The adjustment is simple: no silver longs until it stops making lower lows. The gold/silver ratio is expanding, which historically predicts either a silver catch-up trade or a broader economic slowdown. We will monitor which it is. For now, silver is a no-touch.

Scalping (1-5 min)

• Oil range: $95.50-97.00. The consolidation above $96 is your friend. Buy dips to $95.50-96.00, sell into $97.00
• Gold range: $4,670-4,700. Smaller moves than oil. Tighter stops needed
• Avoid silver scalps. The trend is down and liquidity can be thin during declines

Intraday (15 min – 4 hr)

• Oil long: entry $95.50-96.00, stop $94.50, target $97.80. R:R 1.5:1. The consolidation pattern suggests the next leg is up
• Gold long on dips: entry $4,660-4,680, stop $4,630, target $4,730. R:R 1.4:1
• Copper: neutral. No clear intraday setup. Wait for $6 to break or hold decisively

Swing (1-5 days)

• Oil long: entry $95.00-96.50, stop $93.50, target $100.00. R:R 1.5:1. Weekend risk is bullish for oil because supply disruptions do not take days off
• Gold long: entry $4,650-4,690, stop $4,600, target $4,780. R:R 1.5:1. Structural thesis unchanged despite two days of dips
• Silver: no longs. No shorts either at this point. The trend is down but the gold/silver ratio is stretched. Stand aside until direction clarifies

Positional (weeks-months)

• Oil above $95 confirms the supply-driven rally is structural. Maintain core long exposure. Reduce only on a close below $93
• Gold above $4,600 keeps the all-time-high thesis alive. Central bank demand and geopolitical hedging are not going away
• Copper at $6 is the barometer for global industrial demand. If it breaks below $5.80, the economic outlook deteriorates. If it holds and rallies to $6.30, global growth is intact

Commodity risk: Around 35% (moderate)

Oil has the cleanest trend but carries event risk near $100. Gold has structural support but is pulling back. The factors:

• Oil policy response: $100 is a political threshold. Government action above that level could reverse $5-8 quickly
• Gold profit-taking: Shallow and orderly. Not a risk, but a reality that limits near-term upside
• Silver weakness: Expanding gold/silver ratio signals industrial concern. Watch for macro confirmation
• Dollar correlation: Dollar’s third day of firming creates a headwind for all dollar-denominated commodities. The headwind is weakening but present

This is analysis, not financial advice. Trading involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always manage your risk and never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.