Friday morning. Markets are quiet overnight and the mood is simple: risk is on, but the easy money has already been made this week.
What happened overnight
ES futures are sitting at 7,086.25, a full 45 points above Friday’s cash close at 7,041. That overnight bid tells you institutions aren’t selling into the weekend. Russell is leading at +0.33%, which means small cap risk appetite is creeping back. VIX continues to fade at 20.45 (suite reads 18.0), and the Fear and Greed index has accelerated into greed for the third straight session: 56.5 to 61.4 to 63.3. Crude gave back most of yesterday’s +6.18% spike, now sitting at $89.68 after losing $3.51 overnight. Gold is flat. Silver is the quiet outperformer at +0.48%.
Where the opportunity is
NAS100 is the one to watch because it just confirmed a macro uptrend at 97% engine confidence with three of four trend directions pointing up. The markup phase is active. But the RSI at 82.4 is screaming overbought, and price is pressing into the 26,413 swing level. That combination means one thing: don’t chase it here.
The chart
NAS100 macro view: macro trend confirmed, approaching swing level resistance
The read
The macro structure is clean. Macro trend confirmed, markup mode active, 97% conviction. But overbought RSI at 82.4 near the 26,413 swing level is a textbook spot for a short-term pullback. The reload zone sits at 25,800 to 26,000, where the short-term channel support lines up. That is your area. A dip into that zone with RSI cooling off is a high-conviction long entry.
Today’s calendar is light: Baker Hughes rig count, Fed speakers Barkin and Waller. Nothing to move the needle. But next week is loaded with Retail Sales Tuesday, PMI Thursday, and Michigan Friday. Position accordingly.
One line
The trend is yours, but let it come to you. Wait for 25,800-26,000 and you get the best of both worlds: confirmed macro trend and a clean entry.
