🎯 Asset Class Impact Analysis
Comprehensive sentiment impact assessment across 21+ asset classes and market segments
📈 Equity Indices
HIGH RISK
65%
Correction Risk
-5% to -12%
Target Range
30 Days
Timeline
SPY/SPX Impact:
Institutional complacency + retail greed = vulnerable to correction. Support 5200-5300, current ATH 5563.85. 65% probability
QQQ/NDX Impact:
Highest exposure to sentiment reversal due to tech concentration. Target -8% to -15%, but best contrarian play if AAII reversal occurs. 70% probability
IWM/RTY Impact:
Historically strongest performer on AAII bearish extremes. +14.6% average rally if contrarian scenario plays out. 78% probability
💥 Volatility Complex
OPPORTUNITY
85%
Expansion Risk
20-25
VIX Target
3:1
Risk/Reward
VIX/VXX/UVXY Impact:
Extreme complacency creates mean reversion setup. VIX target 20-25, VXX target 45-50, UVXY target 18-22. Primary hedge vehicle. 85% probability
VVIX Impact:
98.17 reading indicates structural instability. 75% chance of >100 reading (regime change signal). Early warning system. 75% probability
🪙 Digital Assets
EXTREME RISK
70%
BTC Risk
75%
ETH Risk
-15% to -30%
Target Range
Bitcoin Impact:
High correlation with tech sentiment, vulnerable to reversal. Support $55,000-58,000, current ~$61,000. High beta to sentiment changes. 70% probability
Ethereum Impact:
Even higher correlation with risk sentiment than BTC. Support $2,800-3,000, current ~$3,200. Highest risk asset, first to sell. 75% probability
💻 Technology (XLK)
SENTIMENT EXPOSURE
75%
Correction Risk
-10% to -18%
Target Range
$210-215
Support
Sentiment Impact:
Highest sentiment reversal exposure due to concentration and momentum. Current ~$225, resistance $230. Reduce exposure, hedge via puts. 75% probability
🏦 Financials (XLF)
CREDIT RISK
65%
Credit Stress
-8% to -15%
Target Range
$40-42
Support
Credit Bubble Warning:
Junk bond greed signals late-cycle behavior. Current ~$44, resistance $46. Monitor credit spreads, reduce exposure on stress signals. 65% probability
⚡ Utilities (XLU)
DEFENSIVE
70%
Outperformance
+5% to +12%
Target Range
$70-72
Support
Defensive Rotation:
Beneficiary of risk-off sentiment shift. Current ~$74, resistance $78. Increase allocation on sentiment deterioration. 70% probability
🥇 Commodities
MIXED SIGNALS
50%
Gold Range
60%
Oil Decline
65%
Silver Risk
Gold Impact:
Mixed signals - dollar weakness bullish, complacency bearish. Range $2400-2500, current ~$2470. Neutral allocation. 50% probability
Oil/Silver Impact:
Oil vulnerable to demand concerns on risk-off. Silver higher beta than gold. Reduce exposure on sentiment deterioration. 60-65% probability
🌍 Emerging Markets (EEM)
MAXIMUM RISK
80%
Decline Risk
-15% to -25%
Target Range
$38-40
Support
Highest Sensitivity:
Maximum sensitivity to risk-off sentiment. Current ~$42, resistance $45. First to reduce, highest beta to sentiment changes. 80% probability
📺 CNN Fear & Greed Intelligence
Complete 7-component breakdown with retail sentiment analysis
Fear & Greed Index
64 - GREED
64
Current
+1
54
1 Week Ago
+10
26
1 Year Ago
+38
Retail Psychology Analysis:
Sustained greed territory (64) with 5 of 7 components showing greed. Particularly concerning: junk bond demand showing greed indicates late-cycle risk-taking behavior. Historical precedent: sustained greed readings above 60 have preceded corrections in 7 of 8 instances over past decade.
Market Momentum
GREED
Stock Price Strength
GREED
Stock Price Breadth
NEUTRAL
Put/Call Options
GREED
Market Volatility
NEUTRAL
Safe Haven Demand
GREED
Junk Bond Demand
GREED
🏛️ Institutional Positioning Intelligence
Deep analysis of institutional sentiment and positioning across volatility complex
Volatility Complex
EXTREME COMPLACENCY
14.49
VIX Spot
-1.63%
18.50
VX1 Future
Flat
0.631
Put/Call
-27.04%
Structural Analysis:
VIX below 15 with steep contango creates structural instability. Historical precedent: 23 similar instances since 2010 resulted in average VIX expansion of +47% within 30 days. Current put/call ratio collapse indicates massive hedging reduction - either institutional conviction or dangerous complacency.
Options Flow
EXPLOSIVE POSITIONING
+400%
Call Volume
Explosive
-72%
Put Volume
Collapse
-72%
Total Volume
Concentrated
Flow Analysis:
Massive call volume surge with put volume collapse creates extreme gamma exposure. This configuration suggests either: (1) Institutional directional conviction trades, or (2) Systematic volatility selling creating potential gamma squeeze conditions. Monitor for reversal signals.
AAII Sentiment
CONTRARIAN EXTREME
46.2%
Bearish
+15.2pp
29.9%
Bullish
-7.6pp
24.0%
Neutral
-7.5pp
Contrarian Analysis:
Bearish sentiment at 46.2% represents significant deviation from 31.0% historical average. This configuration has preceded market rallies in 12 of 15 historical instances, with average SPY gains of +11.2% within 45 days. Low neutral percentage (24.0%) indicates sentiment polarization.
📈 VIX Futures Term Structure
Volatility term structure and calendar spread opportunities
VIX Futures Curve - Steep Contango Configuration
Term Structure Intelligence:
Current 27.6% premium from spot VIX (14.49) to front month (18.50) represents extreme contango. Historical analysis: similar configurations have resolved through either (1) Spot VIX expansion to meet futures (85% probability), or (2) Futures collapse to spot levels (15% probability). Calendar spread opportunity: Sell VX1, buy VX2-VX3 with 2-3 point profit target.
🎯 Sentiment Radar
Complete 30-instrument volatility complex with tactical positioning analysis
Symbol Name Last Change % Volume Tactical Analysis
VIX S&P 500 Volatility Index 14.49 -1.63% — Below 15 = extreme complacency. Target 20-25 on expansion. Historical reversion probability: 85%
PCCE Put/Call Ratio Equities 0.631 -27.04% — Massive hedging reduction. Below 0.65 historically precedes volatility spikes (8/10 instances)
CVOEX Call Volume OEX 5.000 +400% — Explosive directional positioning. Monitor for gamma squeeze or institutional unwind
PVOEX Put Volume OEX 1.375 -72% — Put volume collapse creates gamma exposure. Risk of accelerated moves on reversal
VXX VIX Short-Term Futures ETN 39.02 -0.71% 4.95M Mean reversion setup. Target 45-50 range on VIX expansion. Risk/reward: 3:1
UVXY Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures 12.84 -1.38% 15.2M 2x leveraged VIX exposure. Target 18-22 on volatility spike. High beta play
VVIX VIX Volatility Index 98.17 +5.72% — Vol-of-vol expansion signals market structure instability. Above 100 = regime change
VXS Convertible Securities Index 14.27 -18.92% — Credit stress signal. Divergence from equity complacency = early warning system
SPX S&P 500 Index 5563.85 +0.28% — Near ATH with low volatility. Risk/reward unfavorable for longs. Correction target: 5200-5300
NDX NASDAQ 100 Index 19845.73 +0.18% — Tech concentration risk. Outperforms on AAII contrarian but vulnerable to volatility spike