TCL.AX
Transurban Group
Industrials · Highway & Railtracks · ASX
$14.42
Close 2026-05-09
✗ ETHICAL FAIL
UNKNOWN MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$45.0B
Trailing P/E
96.13
Forward P/E
62.17
Rev Growth
+8.2%
Profit Margin
12.2%
ROE
5.4%
Analyst Target
$13.91
Recommendation
HOLD
Ethical Screen
| Business Activity | PASS |
| Debt Ratio (0.59%) | FAIL |
| Cash Ratio (0.05%) | PASS |
| Receivables Ratio (0.00%) | PASS |
| Revenue Ratio (0.21%) | FAIL |
| Overall | FAIL |
Score Ethical: 10.0
Score Valuation: 16.5
Score Quality: 33.0
Score Combined: 24.9
Fair Value Est: $3.73 · Margin of Safety: -74.1% · Tier: AVOID
Opportunity Scores
Valuation0.0
Quality22.1
Cash Flow15.8
Moat40.0
Balance Sheet0.0
Debt Purity0.0
Liquid Purity85.3
Rev Purity0.0
Compliance25.1
Tier: AVOID · Score: 11.6 · Rank: #5075
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
| Date | EPS Est. | Reported EPS | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | — | Pending | -- |
Insider Transactions
| Date | Name | Role | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | Drummond (Craig Milton) | Independent Non-Executive Director | 1,424 | $14.0K |
| 2026-02-24 | Go (Marina Simone) | Independent Non-Executive Director | 98 | $960.0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Go (Marina Simone) | Independent Non-Executive Director | 318 | $3.1K |
| 2025-08-29 | Jablko (Michelle) | Chief Executive Officer | 25,608 | -- |
| 2025-08-22 | Drummond (Craig Milton) | Independent Non-Executive Director | 1,391 | $12.2K |
| 2025-08-22 | Go (Marina Simone) | Independent Non-Executive Director | 407 | $3.6K |
| 2025-08-22 | Jablko (Michelle) | Chief Executive Officer | 47,250 | -- |
| 2025-08-22 | Scott (Peter Brooke) | Independent Non-Executive Director | 996 | $8.7K |
| 2025-06-30 | Green (Nicole) | Divisional Officer | 6,328 | -- |
| 2025-06-30 | Moorfield (Simon) | Divisional Officer | 17,925 | -- |
Top Institutional Holders
| Holder | Shares | Value | % Held |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pacer Advisors, Inc. | 27.2K | $394.8K | — |
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
14 analysts
2 Months Ago
14 analysts
Last Month
13 analysts
Current
14 analysts
Strong Buy
Buy
Hold
Sell
Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$65.1B
$65.1B
Price/Book
5.15
5.15
Beta
0.482
0.482
Analysts
14
14
Total Revenue (TTM)
$3.9B
$3.9B
Total Debt
$20.9B
$20.9B
Dividend Yield
472.0%
472.0%
Rec. Mean
2.86
2.86
Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 24.9 (P2 — top 97.9% of scored tickers). Unknown Moat. Ethical FAIL. 14 analysts at Hold.
Price: $14.42 | Target: $13.91 (+-4%) | Fair Value: $3.73 (+-74%)
Score
25
Moat
Unknown
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+-4%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+8.2%
Profit Margin0.0%
ROE5.4%
Forward P/E62.2
Market Cap$45.0B
Earnings Track Record
| Date | Estimate | Reported | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | $— | Pending | — |
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $12.26 (-15%) | Entry: $14.42
| Shares | Cost | Profit to Target | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|
| To Consensus ($13.91, 14 analysts) | |||
| 10 | $144.20 | +$-5.10 (-4%) | -0.2R |
| 50 | $721.00 | +$-25.50 (-4%) | -0.2R |
| 100 | $1,442.00 | +$-51.00 (-4%) | -0.2R |
| To Fair Value ($3.73) | |||
| 10 | $144.20 | +$-106.90 (-74%) | -4.9R |
| 50 | $721.00 | +$-534.50 (-74%) | -4.9R |
| 100 | $1,442.00 | +$-1,069.00 (-74%) | -4.9R |
Risk Factors
- Valuation stretched on forward earnings
The Verdict
Transurban Group holds a unknown competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade
A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.
B
Quant Score
64.5
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
7
Risk Profile
How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.
VaR 95%
-1.4%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-2.0%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
—
Sortino Ratio
1.22
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-10.2%
Worst Day
—
Forward Outlook
Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.
30d Prob Up
—
90d Prob Up
—
Median Return 30d
—
Liquidity Score
72
Liquidity Grade
LIQUID
Trend & Momentum
What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?
Kalman Trend
—
Trend Strength
—
Momentum Signal
—
HMM Regime
—
RSI Signal
—
Technical Signals
Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.
MA Crossover
DEATH_CROSS
Bollinger Position
UPPER_HALF
Beta
—
Relative Volume
0.7x
Short Interest
—
Financial Health
Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.
Altman Z-Score
—
—
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
—
Earnings Beat Rate
—
Earnings Consistency
—
Correlations
These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.
Most Correlated
| Ticker | Correlation |
|---|---|
| WES.AX | 0.371 |
| SCG.AX | 0.368 |
| TLS.AX | 0.345 |
| APA.AX | 0.296 |
| GMG.AX | 0.275 |
Inverse Correlated
| Ticker | Correlation |
|---|---|
| 4326.SR | -0.243 |
| SATA | -0.135 |
| NTSK | -0.130 |
| MPLT | -0.125 |
| 3060.SR | -0.120 |
Seasonality
Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.
Best Day
Monday
Worst Day
Tuesday
Best Month
Aug
Worst Month
Sep
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.11551191661374544
Momentum Rankings
How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.
1M Return
+4.2%
3M Return
+1.1%
6M Return
+0.3%
12M Return
+7.2%
Momentum Rank
#2329
Momentum Signal
FLAT