ORG.AX
Origin Energy
Utilities · Multi-Utilities · ASX
$11.62
Close 2026-05-13
✗ NOT SCREENED
MODERATE
Data Confidence: 71%
Some financial metrics pending
Market Cap
$20.0B
Trailing P/E
18.47
Forward P/E
15.34
Rev Growth
-9.0%
Profit Margin
0.1%
ROE
10.2%
Analyst Target
$12.19
Recommendation
HOLD
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.23%)PASS
Cash Ratio (0.01%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.00%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (-0.01%)PASS
Overall
Score Ethical: 0.0
Score Valuation: 33.0
Score Quality: 35.2
Score Combined: 33.3
· Tier: AVOID

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation50.0
Quality26.4
Cash Flow50.0
Moat50.0
Balance Sheet50.0
Debt Purity30.1
Liquid Purity97.7
Rev Purity100.0
Compliance70.5
Tier: BRONZE · Score: 46.2 · Rank: #2863
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-08-13Pending--
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-03-27Scheinkestel (Nora Lia)Independent Non-Executive Director807$6.5K
2026-03-27Scheinkestel (Nora Lia)Independent Non-Executive Director261$2.1K
2026-03-05Mikkelsen (Stephen)Director (Non-Executive)10,000$83.0K
2026-02-20Scheinkestel (Nora Lia)Independent Non-Executive Director5,625$49.0K
2026-02-18Calabria (Frank)Chief Executive Officer291,500$2.4M
2025-10-03Scheinkestel (Nora Lia)Independent Non-Executive Director845$7.0K
2025-09-12Calabria (Frank)Chief Executive Officer55,500$456.7K
2025-09-08Calabria (Frank)Chief Executive Officer163,900$1.3M
2025-09-01Calabria (Frank)Chief Executive Officer122,850--
2025-08-28Calabria (Frank)Chief Executive Officer472,011--
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Pacer Advisors, Inc.13.9K$151.5K
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
1
3
2
2
9 analysts
2 Months Ago
1
3
4
2
10 analysts
Last Month
1
3
3
2
9 analysts
Current
1
3
3
2
10 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$22.8B
Price/Book
1.93
Beta
0.453
Analysts
10
Total Revenue (TTM)
$16.5B
Total Debt
$4.7B
Earnings Growth
-45.3%
Dividend Yield
5.5%
Rec. Mean
2.80

Elite Intelligence

Trade Consideration with position sizing, convergence signals, and risk analysis. Available to Elite members.

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 33.3 (P25 — top 75.2% of scored tickers). 10 analysts at Hold.
Price: $11.62 | Target: $12.19 (+5%)
Score
33
Moat
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+5%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth0.0%
Profit Margin0.1%
Forward P/E0.0
Market Cap$20.0B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-08-13$—Pending
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $9.88 (-15%) | Entry: $11.62
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($12.19, 10 analysts)
10$116.20+$5.70 (5%)0.3R
50$581.00+$28.50 (5%)0.3R
100$1,162.00+$57.00 (5%)0.3R
Risk Factors
  • No elevated risk flags in current data
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

C
Quant Score
50.1
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
7
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-2.2%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-3.8%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
0.30
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-16.8%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
67
Liquidity Grade
LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
ABOVE_200
Bollinger Position
BELOW_LOWER
Beta
Relative Volume
3.9x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
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Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
AEBI-0.216
ALH-0.204
PRN.L-0.198
CAKE-0.189
BETA-0.181
Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Tuesday
Worst Day
Wednesday
Best Month
Feb
Worst Month
May
Fri-Mon Effect
0.03622463262663615
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
-12.3%
3M Return
-9.9%
6M Return
-4.5%
12M Return
+5.9%
Momentum Rank
#3617
Momentum Signal
DOWN

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